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Crystal Palace vs Newcastle

Sat 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Round 8 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Crystal Palace win: 33.7%

Draw: 23.2%

Newcastle win: 43.0%

Predicted: Newcastle

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 64.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 62.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.11

More corners: Newcastle (41.5% home / 58.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Newcastle

Yes

Probability Newcastle wins or draws: 67.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Newcastle Clearest lean of the available outcomes (43% vs next-best 34%). (43.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (64.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (63.0% model probability) High

Corners Newcastle (more corners) (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Newcastle win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (68.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.