← Back to fixtures

Fulham vs Liverpool

Sat 20 Mar 2027, 15:00 UTC · Round 30 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Fulham win: 26.2%

Draw: 21.8%

Liverpool win: 52.0%

Predicted: Liverpool

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 64.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.87

More corners: Liverpool (48.2% home / 51.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Liverpool

Yes

Probability Liverpool wins or draws: 68.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Liverpool Clearest lean of the available outcomes (52% vs next-best 26%). (52.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (65.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Liverpool win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (68.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.