← Back to fixtures

Hull vs Brentford

Sat 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Round 8 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Hull win: 35.4%

Draw: 26.2%

Brentford win: 38.4%

Predicted: Brentford

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 51.9%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 44.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 11.66

More corners: Hull (54.2% home / 45.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Brentford

Yes

Probability Brentford wins or draws: 68.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (38.0% model probability) Low

Total Goals Under 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Brentford win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (68.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.