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Hull vs Liverpool

Sat 26 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC · Round 17 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Hull win: 23.7%

Draw: 26.9%

Liverpool win: 49.4%

Predicted: Liverpool

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 54.0%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 43.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.88

More corners: Liverpool (43.1% home / 56.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Liverpool

Yes

Probability Liverpool wins or draws: 74.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Liverpool Clearest lean of the available outcomes (49% vs next-best 27%). (49.0% model probability) Medium

Total Goals Under 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Liverpool win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (75.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.