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Ipswich vs Aston Villa

Sat 28 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC · Round 12 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Ipswich win: 22.6%

Draw: 23.2%

Aston Villa win: 54.2%

Predicted: Aston Villa

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 46.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 52.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.59

More corners: Aston Villa (35.3% home / 64.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Aston Villa

Yes

Probability Aston Villa wins or draws: 77.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Aston Villa Clearest lean of the available outcomes (54% vs next-best 23%). (54.0% model probability) Medium

Corners Aston Villa (more corners) (65.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Aston Villa win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (77.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.