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Ipswich vs Brighton

Sat 27 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC · Round 27 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Ipswich win: 18.9%

Draw: 23.7%

Brighton win: 57.3%

Predicted: Brighton

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 38.5%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 45.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.19

More corners: Brighton (32.6% home / 67.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Brighton

Yes

Probability Brighton wins or draws: 72.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Brighton Clearest lean of the available outcomes (57% vs next-best 24%). (57.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score No (62.0% model probability) High

Corners Brighton (more corners) (67.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Brighton win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (73.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.