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Ipswich vs Chelsea

Wed 30 Dec 2026, 20:00 UTC · Round 18 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Ipswich win: 24.0%

Draw: 28.6%

Chelsea win: 47.3%

Predicted: Chelsea

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 54.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 50.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.17

More corners: Chelsea (32.0% home / 68.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Chelsea

Yes

Probability Chelsea wins or draws: 71.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Chelsea Clearest lean of the available outcomes (47% vs next-best 29%). (47.0% model probability) Medium

Corners Chelsea (more corners) (68.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Chelsea win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (72.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.