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Ipswich vs Coventry

Wed 06 Jan 2027, 20:00 UTC · Round 20 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Ipswich win: 25.5%

Draw: 25.6%

Coventry win: 48.8%

Predicted: Coventry

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 50.2%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 47.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.72

More corners: Coventry (35.4% home / 64.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Coventry

Yes

Probability Coventry wins or draws: 70.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Coventry Clearest lean of the available outcomes (49% vs next-best 26%). (49.0% model probability) Medium

Corners Coventry (more corners) (65.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Coventry win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (71.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.