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Ipswich vs Crystal Palace

Sat 20 Mar 2027, 15:00 UTC · Round 30 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Ipswich win: 31.5%

Draw: 28.0%

Crystal Palace win: 40.5%

Predicted: Crystal Palace

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 49.6%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 37.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.79

More corners: Crystal Palace (42.8% home / 57.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Crystal Palace

Yes

Probability Crystal Palace wins or draws: 61.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Crystal Palace Clearest lean of the available outcomes (40% vs next-best 32%). (40.0% model probability) Low

Total Goals Under 2.5 (63.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Crystal Palace win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (62.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.