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Ipswich vs Everton

Sun 30 May 2027, 15:00 UTC · Round 38 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Ipswich win: 30.1%

Draw: 25.8%

Everton win: 44.1%

Predicted: Everton

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 52.6%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 48.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 11.24

More corners: Everton (43.7% home / 56.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Everton

Yes

Probability Everton wins or draws: 66.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Everton Clearest lean of the available outcomes (44% vs next-best 30%). (44.0% model probability) Low

Favorite Avoids Defeat Everton win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (67.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.