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Ipswich vs Leeds

Sat 01 May 2027, 14:00 UTC · Round 34 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Ipswich win: 28.7%

Draw: 25.2%

Leeds win: 46.1%

Predicted: Leeds

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 52.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 53.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 11.32

More corners: Leeds (41.4% home / 58.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Leeds

Yes

Probability Leeds wins or draws: 68.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Leeds Clearest lean of the available outcomes (46% vs next-best 29%). (46.0% model probability) Medium

Corners Leeds (more corners) (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Leeds win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (68.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.