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Ipswich vs Liverpool

Fri 04 Sep 2026, 19:00 UTC · Round 3 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Ipswich win: 18.6%

Draw: 19.1%

Liverpool win: 62.4%

Predicted: Liverpool

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 44.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 51.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.35

More corners: Liverpool (31.0% home / 69.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Liverpool

Yes

Probability Liverpool wins or draws: 78.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Liverpool Clearest lean of the available outcomes (62% vs next-best 19%). (62.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score No (55.0% model probability) High

Corners Liverpool (more corners) (69.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Liverpool win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (78.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.