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Ipswich vs Newcastle

Sat 12 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC · Round 15 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Ipswich win: 26.7%

Draw: 24.3%

Newcastle win: 49.0%

Predicted: Newcastle

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 46.0%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 46.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.85

More corners: Newcastle (33.0% home / 67.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Newcastle

Yes

Probability Newcastle wins or draws: 71.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Newcastle Clearest lean of the available outcomes (49% vs next-best 27%). (49.0% model probability) Medium

Corners Newcastle (more corners) (67.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Newcastle win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (71.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.