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Leeds vs Arsenal

Sat 08 May 2027, 14:00 UTC · Round 35 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Leeds win: 18.5%

Draw: 21.1%

Arsenal win: 60.4%

Predicted: Arsenal

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 66.2%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 65.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.2

More corners: Arsenal (24.5% home / 75.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Arsenal

Yes

Probability Arsenal wins or draws: 84.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Arsenal Clearest lean of the available outcomes (60% vs next-best 21%). (60.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (66.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (65.0% model probability) High

Corners Arsenal (more corners) (76.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Arsenal win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (85.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.