← Back to fixtures

Leeds vs Bournemouth

Sat 06 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC · Round 24 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Leeds win: 35.6%

Draw: 23.1%

Bournemouth win: 41.3%

Predicted: Bournemouth

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 61.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 65.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.27

More corners: Bournemouth (44.6% home / 55.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Bournemouth

Yes

Probability Bournemouth wins or draws: 65.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (41.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (61.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (66.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Bournemouth win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.