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Leeds vs Chelsea

Sat 23 Jan 2027, 15:00 UTC · Round 22 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Leeds win: 33.5%

Draw: 26.9%

Chelsea win: 39.6%

Predicted: Chelsea

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 63.8%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 62.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.04

More corners: Chelsea (38.5% home / 61.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Chelsea

Yes

Probability Chelsea wins or draws: 70.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (40.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (64.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (62.0% model probability) High

Corners Chelsea (more corners) (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Chelsea win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (70.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.