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Leeds vs Coventry

Sat 28 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC · Round 12 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Leeds win: 41.8%

Draw: 25.4%

Coventry win: 32.8%

Predicted: Leeds

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 51.9%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 49.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.92

More corners: Leeds (52.1% home / 47.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Leeds

Yes

Probability Leeds wins or draws: 74.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Leeds Clearest lean of the available outcomes (42% vs next-best 33%). (42.0% model probability) Low

Favorite Avoids Defeat Leeds win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (74.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.