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Leeds vs Fulham

Sat 19 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC · Round 16 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Leeds win: 33.4%

Draw: 29.4%

Fulham win: 37.2%

Predicted: Fulham

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 62.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 59.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.1

More corners: Fulham (38.7% home / 61.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Fulham

Yes

Probability Fulham wins or draws: 69.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (37.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (62.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (60.0% model probability) High

Corners Fulham (more corners) (61.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Fulham win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (69.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.