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Leeds vs Man City

Wed 06 Jan 2027, 20:00 UTC · Round 20 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Leeds win: 20.2%

Draw: 21.5%

Man City win: 58.3%

Predicted: Man City

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.8%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 67.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.19

More corners: Man City (24.9% home / 75.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Man City

Yes

Probability Man City wins or draws: 82.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Man City Clearest lean of the available outcomes (58% vs next-best 22%). (58.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (67.0% model probability) High

Corners Man City (more corners) (75.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Man City win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (82.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.