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Leeds vs Newcastle

Mon 14 Sep 2026, 19:00 UTC · Round 4 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Leeds win: 38.5%

Draw: 23.0%

Newcastle win: 38.5%

Predicted: Leeds

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 66.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 65.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.28

More corners: Newcastle (39.3% home / 60.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Newcastle

Yes

Probability Newcastle wins or draws: 69.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (38.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (66.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (65.0% model probability) High

Corners Newcastle (more corners) (61.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Newcastle win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (70.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.