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Liverpool vs Nott'm Forest

Sat 29 Aug 2026, 11:30 UTC · Round 2 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Liverpool win: 52.3%

Draw: 22.7%

Nott'm Forest win: 25.0%

Predicted: Liverpool

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 60.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 68.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.67

More corners: Liverpool (69.4% home / 30.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Liverpool

Yes

Probability Liverpool wins or draws: 73.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Liverpool Clearest lean of the available outcomes (52% vs next-best 25%). (52.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (68.0% model probability) High

Corners Liverpool (more corners) (69.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Liverpool win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (73.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.