← Back to fixtures

Man United vs Bournemouth

Sat 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Round 8 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Man United win: 57.5%

Draw: 19.8%

Bournemouth win: 22.7%

Predicted: Man United

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 56.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 66.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.2

More corners: Man United (64.1% home / 35.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Man United

Yes

Probability Man United wins or draws: 62.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Man United Clearest lean of the available outcomes (57% vs next-best 23%). (57.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (56.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (67.0% model probability) High

Corners Man United (more corners) (64.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Man United win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (62.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.