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Newcastle vs Arsenal

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC · Round 11 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Newcastle win: 21.4%

Draw: 24.2%

Arsenal win: 54.5%

Predicted: Arsenal

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 62.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 62.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.93

More corners: Arsenal (27.6% home / 72.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Arsenal

Yes

Probability Arsenal wins or draws: 84.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Arsenal Clearest lean of the available outcomes (55% vs next-best 24%). (55.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (62.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (63.0% model probability) High

Corners Arsenal (more corners) (72.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Arsenal win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (84.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.