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Newcastle vs Aston Villa

Sat 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Round 7 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Newcastle win: 37.2%

Draw: 23.2%

Aston Villa win: 39.6%

Predicted: Aston Villa

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 63.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 67.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.18

More corners: Aston Villa (43.9% home / 56.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Aston Villa

Yes

Probability Aston Villa wins or draws: 65.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (40.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (63.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (67.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Aston Villa win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.