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Newcastle vs Chelsea

Wed 10 Feb 2027, 20:00 UTC · Round 25 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Newcastle win: 40.6%

Draw: 26.9%

Chelsea win: 32.5%

Predicted: Newcastle

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 61.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 62.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.97

More corners: Newcastle (50.3% home / 49.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Chelsea

Yes

Probability Chelsea wins or draws: 65.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Newcastle Clearest lean of the available outcomes (41% vs next-best 32%). (41.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (62.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (63.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Chelsea win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.