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Newcastle vs Everton

Sat 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Round 9 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Newcastle win: 50.4%

Draw: 22.6%

Everton win: 26.9%

Predicted: Newcastle

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 61.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.39

More corners: Newcastle (62.2% home / 37.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Newcastle

Yes

Probability Newcastle wins or draws: 68.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Newcastle Clearest lean of the available outcomes (50% vs next-best 27%). (50.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (62.0% model probability) High

Corners Newcastle (more corners) (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Newcastle win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (69.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.