← Back to fixtures

Newcastle vs Man United

Wed 02 Dec 2026, 20:00 UTC · Round 13 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Newcastle win: 27.8%

Draw: 23.5%

Man United win: 48.8%

Predicted: Man United

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.0%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 66.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.1

More corners: Man United (43.7% home / 56.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Man United

Yes

Probability Man United wins or draws: 74.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Man United Clearest lean of the available outcomes (49% vs next-best 28%). (49.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (66.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Man United win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (74.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.