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Newcastle vs Sunderland

Sat 05 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC · Round 14 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Newcastle win: 45.2%

Draw: 26.9%

Sunderland win: 27.9%

Predicted: Newcastle

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 54.9%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 54.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.38

More corners: Newcastle (55.8% home / 44.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Newcastle

Yes

Probability Newcastle wins or draws: 71.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Newcastle Clearest lean of the available outcomes (45% vs next-best 28%). (45.0% model probability) Medium

Favorite Avoids Defeat Newcastle win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (72.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.