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Nott'm Forest vs Chelsea

Sat 28 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC · Round 12 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Nott'm Forest win: 36.1%

Draw: 27.8%

Chelsea win: 36.1%

Predicted: Chelsea

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 64.6%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 64.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.99

More corners: Chelsea (48.3% home / 51.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Chelsea

Yes

Probability Chelsea wins or draws: 71.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (36.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (65.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (65.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Chelsea win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (71.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.