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Sunderland vs Coventry

Sat 23 Jan 2027, 15:00 UTC · Round 22 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Sunderland win: 39.8%

Draw: 24.7%

Coventry win: 35.5%

Predicted: Sunderland

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 57.0%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 43.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.57

More corners: Sunderland (52.3% home / 47.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Sunderland

Yes

Probability Sunderland wins or draws: 73.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (40.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (57.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Sunderland win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (74.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.