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Sunderland vs Crystal Palace

Sat 19 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC · Round 16 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Sunderland win: 44.1%

Draw: 25.9%

Crystal Palace win: 30.0%

Predicted: Sunderland

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.4%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 47.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.26

More corners: Sunderland (61.0% home / 39.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Sunderland

Yes

Probability Sunderland wins or draws: 61.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Sunderland Clearest lean of the available outcomes (44% vs next-best 30%). (44.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Corners Sunderland (more corners) (61.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Sunderland win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (62.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.