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Sunderland vs Everton

Sat 20 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC · Round 26 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Sunderland win: 41.8%

Draw: 25.2%

Everton win: 33.1%

Predicted: Sunderland

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 61.6%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 54.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.26

More corners: Sunderland (57.3% home / 42.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Everton

Yes

Probability Everton wins or draws: 66.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Sunderland Clearest lean of the available outcomes (42% vs next-best 33%). (42.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Everton win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.