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Sunderland vs Leeds

Sat 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Round 8 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Sunderland win: 42.3%

Draw: 23.7%

Leeds win: 34.0%

Predicted: Sunderland

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 62.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 57.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.63

More corners: Sunderland (59.2% home / 40.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Sunderland

Yes

Probability Sunderland wins or draws: 62.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Sunderland Clearest lean of the available outcomes (42% vs next-best 34%). (42.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (62.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (58.0% model probability) High

Corners Sunderland (more corners) (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Sunderland win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (63.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.