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Sunderland vs Nott'm Forest

Sat 12 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC · Round 15 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Sunderland win: 30.7%

Draw: 26.0%

Nott'm Forest win: 43.3%

Predicted: Nott'm Forest

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 60.8%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 58.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.36

More corners: Sunderland (52.5% home / 47.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Nott'm Forest

Yes

Probability Nott'm Forest wins or draws: 67.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Nott'm Forest Clearest lean of the available outcomes (43% vs next-best 31%). (43.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (61.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Nott'm Forest win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (68.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.