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Sunderland vs Tottenham

Sat 28 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC · Round 12 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Sunderland win: 32.2%

Draw: 27.5%

Tottenham win: 40.3%

Predicted: Tottenham

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.2%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 56.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.0

More corners: Tottenham (49.8% home / 50.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Sunderland

Yes

Probability Sunderland wins or draws: 71.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Tottenham Clearest lean of the available outcomes (40% vs next-best 32%). (40.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Sunderland win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (72.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.