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Tottenham vs Everton

Sat 12 Sep 2026, 16:30 UTC · Round 4 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Tottenham win: 43.3%

Draw: 22.7%

Everton win: 34.0%

Predicted: Tottenham

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 54.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 67.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.49

More corners: Tottenham (64.1% home / 35.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Everton

Yes

Probability Everton wins or draws: 57.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Tottenham Clearest lean of the available outcomes (43% vs next-best 34%). (43.0% model probability) Low

Total Goals Over 2.5 (67.0% model probability) High

Corners Tottenham (more corners) (64.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Everton win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (58.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.