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Tottenham vs Leeds

Sat 16 Jan 2027, 15:00 UTC · Round 21 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Tottenham win: 44.5%

Draw: 22.0%

Leeds win: 33.5%

Predicted: Tottenham

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 54.6%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 65.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.71

More corners: Tottenham (68.1% home / 31.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Leeds

Yes

Probability Leeds wins or draws: 58.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Tottenham Clearest lean of the available outcomes (44% vs next-best 34%). (44.0% model probability) Low

Total Goals Over 2.5 (66.0% model probability) High

Corners Tottenham (more corners) (68.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Leeds win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (59.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.