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Tottenham vs Newcastle

Sat 29 Aug 2026, 16:30 UTC · Round 2 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Tottenham win: 41.7%

Draw: 21.6%

Newcastle win: 36.7%

Predicted: Tottenham

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.2%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 69.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.29

More corners: Tottenham (52.0% home / 48.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Newcastle

Yes

Probability Newcastle wins or draws: 54.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (42.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (70.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Newcastle win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (55.0% model probability) Medium

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.