Estoril vs Rio Ave prediction
Sat 22 Aug 2026, 22:30 IST · Round 3 · Data: OK
Estoril vs Rio Ave Primeira Liga prediction for Sat 22 Aug 2026,. Underlying 1X2 lean is Rio Ave (31% home / 32% draw / 37% away). Model markets — Total Goals: Over 2.5 (92%); Corners: Rio Ave (more corners) (89%). In their last 5 meetings, Estoril have won 2, Rio Ave have won 1, with 2 draws. Educational ML estimate — not betting advice.
Prediction Insights
Model-derived leans only — not betting advice.
Underlying 1X2 probabilities
Estoril win: 30.9%
Draw: 32.2%
Rio Ave win: 37.0%
Highest 1X2 model score: Rio Ave. The actionable result pick, if one qualifies, is labelled Safer Result above.
Both Teams to Score
Yes
Probability of Yes: 50.8%
Total Goals
Over 2.5
Probability of Over 2.5: 91.5%
Corners
Expected total corners: 10.56
More corners: Rio Ave (11.3% home / 88.7% away)
Live lineup data unavailable for this fixture.
Match context (form & H2H)
Estoril head into this match having won 0, drawn 2, and lost 3 of their last 5 Primeira Liga games (LLDDL), scoring 3 and conceding 7 over that stretch.
Rio Ave head into this match having won 0, drawn 3, and lost 2 of their last 5 Primeira Liga games (DLDLD), scoring 4 and conceding 9 over that stretch.
In their last 5 meetings, Estoril have won 2, Rio Ave have won 1, with 2 draws -- the most recent finished Estoril 1-2 Rio Ave.
Form and H2H come from this league's historical match data — the same training inputs, not a separate estimate.
Match Analysis
Scout-style context from squad stats, match history, and weather. It does not change the machine-learning probabilities shown below.
Players mapped to team form
Estoril's attacking load sits mainly with limited squad data — while recent team form averages 0.6 scored and 1.4 conceded per game.
Rio Ave's attacking load sits mainly with limited squad data — while recent team form averages 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded per game.
Home / away ground
Estoril at home recently: 2W 2D 4L (1.0 pts/game), scoring 12 and conceding 14.
Rio Ave on the road recently: 3W 1D 4L (1.25 pts/game).
Measured home advantage for Estoril: +0.47 points vs neutral baseline.
Fair play
Estoril fair-play pulse: 2.2 yellows/game, 13.5 fouls/game over last 10.
Rio Ave: 2.8 yellows/game over last 10.
Attack & counter
Estoril recent profile: balanced attack/defence (0.6 GF / 1.4 GA per game, shot quality ~6.6).
Rio Ave: under defensive pressure (0.8 GF / 1.8 GA).
Shot quality treats off-target shots as half an on-target shot.
Scout verdict
Scout synthesis: Estoril at home: 2W-2D-4L in last 8; Rio Ave away: 3W-1D-4L in last 8. Model lean (unchanged by this scout note): Rio Ave.