Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia prediction

Tue 25 Aug 2026, 00:45 IST · Round 3 · Data: OK

Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia Primeira Liga prediction for Tue 25 Aug 2026,. Underlying 1X2 lean is Gil Vicente (42% home / 32% draw / 26% away). Model markets — Total Goals: Over 2.5 (86%); Corners: Gil Vicente (more corners) (57%). In their last 5 meetings, Gil Vicente have won 1, Casa Pia have won 1, with 3 draws. Educational ML estimate — not betting advice.

Prediction Insights

Safer Result No pick Neither the calibrated 70% double-chance bar nor the stricter 75% exact-win bar was cleared. Low

Total Goals Over 2.5 High 86% model

Corners Gil Vicente (more corners) High 57% model

Model-derived leans only — not betting advice.

Underlying 1X2 probabilities

Gil Vicente win: 42.2%

Draw: 31.7%

Casa Pia win: 26.1%

Highest 1X2 model score: Gil Vicente. The actionable result pick, if one qualifies, is labelled Safer Result above.

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 47.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 85.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.85

More corners: Gil Vicente (56.6% home / 43.4% away)

Live lineup data unavailable for this fixture.

Match context (form & H2H)

Gil Vicente head into this match having won 1, drawn 1, and lost 3 of their last 5 Primeira Liga games (LWDLL), scoring 3 and conceding 8 over that stretch.

Casa Pia head into this match having won 1, drawn 1, and lost 3 of their last 5 Primeira Liga games (LLLWD), scoring 3 and conceding 5 over that stretch.

In their last 5 meetings, Gil Vicente have won 1, Casa Pia have won 1, with 3 draws -- the most recent finished Gil Vicente 2-1 Casa Pia.

Form and H2H come from this league's historical match data — the same training inputs, not a separate estimate.

Match Analysis

Scout-style context from squad stats, match history, and weather. It does not change the machine-learning probabilities shown below.

Players mapped to team form

Gil Vicente's attacking load sits mainly with limited squad data — while recent team form averages 0.6 scored and 1.6 conceded per game.

Casa Pia's attacking load sits mainly with limited squad data — while recent team form averages 0.6 scored and 1.0 conceded per game.

Home / away ground

Gil Vicente at home recently: 4W 1D 3L (1.62 pts/game), scoring 16 and conceding 10.

Casa Pia on the road recently: 1W 2D 5L (0.62 pts/game).

Measured home advantage for Gil Vicente: +0.37 points vs neutral baseline.

Fair play

Gil Vicente fair-play pulse: 2.3 yellows/game, 13.3 fouls/game over last 10.

Casa Pia: 2.3 yellows/game over last 10.

Underdog edge

Elo gap ~88 favors Gil Vicente. In similar historical gaps, the underdog (Casa Pia) won outright 27% of the time (sample 458) — underdog edge is real but uncommon.

Attack & counter

Gil Vicente recent profile: under defensive pressure (0.6 GF / 1.6 GA per game, shot quality ~8.0).

Casa Pia: balanced attack/defence (0.6 GF / 1.0 GA).

Shot quality treats off-target shots as half an on-target shot.

Scout verdict

Scout synthesis: Gil Vicente at home: 4W-1D-3L in last 8; Casa Pia away: 1W-2D-5L in last 8; similar Elo gaps historically see the underdog win outright ~27% of the time (n=458). Model lean (unchanged by this scout note): Gil Vicente.