Guimaraes vs Nacional prediction
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 20:00 IST · Round 3 · Data: OK
Guimaraes vs Nacional Primeira Liga prediction for Sun 23 Aug 2026,. Underlying 1X2 lean is Nacional (33% home / 32% draw / 36% away). Model markets — Total Goals: Over 2.5 (92%); Corners: Nacional (more corners) (60%). In their last 5 meetings, Guimaraes have won 2, Nacional have won 2, with 1 draw. Educational ML estimate — not betting advice.
Prediction Insights
Model-derived leans only — not betting advice.
Underlying 1X2 probabilities
Guimaraes win: 32.7%
Draw: 31.5%
Nacional win: 35.8%
Highest 1X2 model score: Nacional. The actionable result pick, if one qualifies, is labelled Safer Result above.
Both Teams to Score
No
Probability of Yes: 47.7%
Total Goals
Over 2.5
Probability of Over 2.5: 92.4%
Corners
Expected total corners: 10.15
More corners: Nacional (39.9% home / 60.1% away)
Live lineup data unavailable for this fixture.
Match context (form & H2H)
Guimaraes head into this match having won 2, drawn 0, and lost 3 of their last 5 Primeira Liga games (WWLLL), scoring 4 and conceding 8 over that stretch.
Nacional head into this match having won 3, drawn 0, and lost 2 of their last 5 Primeira Liga games (WWLLW), scoring 6 and conceding 4 over that stretch.
In their last 5 meetings, Guimaraes have won 2, Nacional have won 2, with 1 draw -- the most recent finished Nacional 2-0 Guimaraes.
Form and H2H come from this league's historical match data — the same training inputs, not a separate estimate.
Match Analysis
Scout-style context from squad stats, match history, and weather. It does not change the machine-learning probabilities shown below.
Players mapped to team form
Guimaraes's attacking load sits mainly with limited squad data — while recent team form averages 0.8 scored and 1.6 conceded per game.
Nacional's attacking load sits mainly with limited squad data — while recent team form averages 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded per game.
Home / away ground
Guimaraes at home recently: 4W 1D 3L (1.62 pts/game), scoring 12 and conceding 6.
Nacional on the road recently: 1W 1D 6L (0.5 pts/game).
Measured home advantage for Guimaraes: +0.53 points vs neutral baseline.
Fair play
Guimaraes fair-play pulse: 2.0 yellows/game, 13.5 fouls/game over last 10.
Nacional: 3.2 yellows/game over last 10.
Underdog edge
Elo gap ~77 favors Guimaraes. In similar historical gaps, the underdog (Nacional) won outright 27% of the time (sample 463) — underdog edge is real but uncommon.
Attack & counter
Guimaraes recent profile: under defensive pressure (0.8 GF / 1.6 GA per game, shot quality ~8.0).
Nacional: balanced attack/defence (1.2 GF / 0.8 GA).
Shot quality treats off-target shots as half an on-target shot.
Scout verdict
Scout synthesis: Guimaraes at home: 4W-1D-3L in last 8; Nacional away: 1W-1D-6L in last 8; similar Elo gaps historically see the underdog win outright ~27% of the time (n=463). Model lean (unchanged by this scout note): Nacional.