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Atalanta vs Lecce

Sat 22 May 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 37 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Atalanta win: 53.1%

Draw: 31.7%

Lecce win: 15.2%

Predicted: Atalanta

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 61.8%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 51.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.07

More corners: Atalanta (75.7% home / 24.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Atalanta

Yes

Probability Atalanta wins or draws: 83.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Atalanta Clearest lean of the available outcomes (53% vs next-best 32%). (53.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (62.0% model probability) High

Corners Atalanta (more corners) (76.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Atalanta win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (83.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.