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Atalanta vs Milan

Sat 20 Mar 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 29 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Atalanta win: 40.1%

Draw: 30.9%

Milan win: 29.0%

Predicted: Atalanta

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 60.2%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 47.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.89

More corners: Atalanta (60.4% home / 39.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Atalanta

Yes

Probability Atalanta wins or draws: 70.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Atalanta Clearest lean of the available outcomes (40% vs next-best 31%). (40.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Corners Atalanta (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Atalanta win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (71.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.