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Atalanta vs Napoli

Sat 19 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 16 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Atalanta win: 30.6%

Draw: 33.9%

Napoli win: 35.4%

Predicted: Napoli

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 57.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 50.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.16

More corners: Atalanta (55.1% home / 44.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Napoli

Yes

Probability Napoli wins or draws: 68.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (35.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Napoli win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (68.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.