← Back to fixtures

Atalanta vs Venezia

Sat 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 6 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Atalanta win: 49.7%

Draw: 34.2%

Venezia win: 16.1%

Predicted: Atalanta

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 63.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 57.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.76

More corners: Atalanta (75.1% home / 24.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Atalanta

Yes

Probability Atalanta wins or draws: 85.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Atalanta Clearest lean of the available outcomes (50% vs next-best 34%). (50.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (64.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Corners Atalanta (more corners) (75.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Atalanta win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (86.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.