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Bologna vs Juventus

Sat 02 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 17 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Bologna win: 15.7%

Draw: 30.4%

Juventus win: 53.9%

Predicted: Juventus

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 53.8%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 57.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.36

More corners: Juventus (46.6% home / 53.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Juventus

Yes

Probability Juventus wins or draws: 74.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Juventus Clearest lean of the available outcomes (54% vs next-best 30%). (54.0% model probability) Medium

Total Goals Over 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Juventus win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (75.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.