← Back to fixtures

Bologna vs Napoli

Sat 13 Mar 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 28 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Bologna win: 21.9%

Draw: 32.0%

Napoli win: 46.1%

Predicted: Napoli

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 53.9%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 49.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 8.96

More corners: Napoli (47.8% home / 52.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Napoli

Yes

Probability Napoli wins or draws: 75.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Napoli Clearest lean of the available outcomes (46% vs next-best 32%). (46.0% model probability) Medium

Favorite Avoids Defeat Napoli win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (75.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.