← Back to fixtures

Bologna vs Roma

Sat 05 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 14 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Bologna win: 20.2%

Draw: 33.4%

Roma win: 46.4%

Predicted: Roma

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 54.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 52.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 8.75

More corners: Roma (43.3% home / 56.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Roma

Yes

Probability Roma wins or draws: 74.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Roma Clearest lean of the available outcomes (46% vs next-best 33%). (46.0% model probability) Medium

Favorite Avoids Defeat Roma win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (74.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.