← Back to fixtures

Cagliari vs Bologna

Sat 24 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 8 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Cagliari win: 22.8%

Draw: 34.4%

Bologna win: 42.7%

Predicted: Bologna

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 52.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.35

More corners: Bologna (49.0% home / 51.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Bologna

Yes

Probability Bologna wins or draws: 75.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Bologna Clearest lean of the available outcomes (43% vs next-best 34%). (43.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Bologna win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (76.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.