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Cagliari vs Como

Sat 16 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 20 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Cagliari win: 14.4%

Draw: 25.4%

Como win: 60.3%

Predicted: Como

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 53.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 55.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.18

More corners: Como (37.4% home / 62.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Como

Yes

Probability Como wins or draws: 81.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Como Clearest lean of the available outcomes (60% vs next-best 25%). (60.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Corners Como (more corners) (63.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Como win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (82.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.